【题目】Inflation Expectation Spillover between China and US
【主讲人简介】贾明远博士2019年毕业于美国加州大学河滨分校(UC, Riverside)，现任职于华南师范大学经济与管理研究院特聘副研究员。贾明远博士曾受邀担任Quantitative Economics 和 Empirical Economics 的匿名审稿人。 他的研究兴趣包括应用宏观经济学，时间序列分析和预测。
【摘要】This paper quantifies an important spillover of inflation expectation between China and US. In contrast to previous literature, we model China and US term structure of inflation expectation jointly in a factor-augmented VAR with Nelson-Siegel form. The model allows us to extract latent factors of inflation expectation and to identify China and US specific inflation expectation shocks. Our main result suggests a bidirectional but quantitatively asymmetric international expectation spillover. Additionally, the spillover of inflation expectation increases during times of macroeconomic stress. The finding contributes to the discussion about global inflation and a weakening control of inflation by central banks. The expectation channel in this paper also suggests that the implementation of average inflation targeting by the US Federal Reserve could be an important factor in worldwide inflation dynamics.